The Democrats will split in 2020. Republicans will be overjoyed. Traditional democrats will scream in pain and blame Bernie Sanders for everything from measles to Armageddon.
Health care will be the reason for the split. It’s already apparent. The candidates running for the Democratic nomination are easily categorized as “for” or “against” single payer health care.
The candidates favoring a single-payer solution to the crisis, notably Bernie and Elizabeth, already have a lot more combined voter support than the “favorite.” One of them would probably win the nomination if things were fair.
But things aren’t fair. In 2016, the traditional Democrats resorted to foul means to make sure that Bernie Sanders did not win the nomination. They will do it again in 2020. They will choose the big money insurance companies over democracy again.
But this time, Bernie won’t go along. He will look at the combined support for single-payer health care, he will look at the cadres of supporters already organized in every state, and he will conclude that either he or Elizabeth, backed by the many progressive candidates in other elections, can win without the Democrats.
He will be right, too. Either he or Elizabeth, or in the best scenario, he AND Elizabeth, will beat both the “liberal” Democrats and the racist Republicans at once. A better world is coming, and it could make significant headway in 2020!